Oregon Climate & Climate Projections

Oregon's climate is changing, bringing more extreme weather, rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increased wildfire risk. This page provides an overview of these changes, their impacts, and tools for understanding future projections. You'll find key climate data, reports, and resources to help with planning and adaptation.

Oregon’s Changing Climate

Climate change in Oregon amplifies and randomizes our existing climate and weather patterns, causing stress to natural systems, human infrastructure, and human health. Change is already underway, and will increase in intensity through the coming decades.

Temperature

According to the 5th National Climate Assessment Chapter 27, average temperature in the Pacific Northwest has increased by 2.5° F already, relative to historic 20th century averages. By the 2080s, annual average temperatures are expected to increase by between 4.7°F and 10.0°F.

Summer Impacts:

  • Extreme heat events will become more frequent and severe.

  • Heat inequities will grow, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.

  • The risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths will rise

Winter Impacts:

  • Warmer temperatures will delay snowpack accumulation and cause earlier snowmelt.

  • More rain-on-snow events will increase flood risks.

  • Despite overall warming, extreme cold events will still occur for decades, driven by disruptions in polar vortex patterns.

  • Both extreme heat and extreme cold deaths are increasing, highlighting the broad impacts of climate change.

Precipitation

The overall pattern of winters being wet and summers being dry will continue. However, a decrease in summer precipitation will be amplified by increased heat, which leads to larger rates of evapotranspiration and therefore intensifies drought conditions. Streams reliant on snowpack will be more likely to go dry in the summer. Periods between summer precipitation events will increase.

Winter precipitation will decrease in some portions of the state and increase in others, and precipitation will be more likely to fall as rain than snow. Climate change increases the intensity of rain events, as warmer air holds more moisture. Oregon will see more of its precipitation be delivered by atmospheric rivers including very warm and wet ‘Pineapple Express’ type storms. These intense rain events will lead to increased flooding in low-lying communities, and increased erosion and landslide risk, particularly dangerous where soils are destabilized by wildfires or logging.

Erratic & Extreme Weather

The likelihood of extreme weather events is increased by climate change, and longstanding climate patterns are becoming less fixed and more random. Short term fluctuations between extremes of hot and cold are becoming more common, and historic patterns of temperature and precipitation are becoming less predictable, resulting in stress to both human and natural systems.  Precipitation events may produce heavier rain, but be spaced further apart, meaning plants experience drought in between.  Climate change also interacts with other naturally occurring climate patterns such as El Nino/La Nina, amplifying their effects and further increasing weather extremes.

Coastal Effects

Coastal storms are stronger, with larger waves and more intense erosion, and storm surges are larger, threatening coastal communities and estuary ecosystems. Sea level is currently predicted to rise between 0.6’ to 1’ by 2050, which will inundate some areas. Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is a risk. Warmer ocean temperatures and ocean acidification threaten coastal biodiversity and recreational and commercial fisheries.

Wildfire and Wildfire Smoke 

Wildfires are an increasing reality for Oregon, due to longer and more intense fire seasons, rampant fuel growth during wet springs, and compounded effects from historic forestry and land use practices.  Wildfire will impact human health, community safety, biodiversity, and the viability of recreation and resource-based economies such as forestry, farming, and ranching.

To learn more about fire ecology, fire-safe landscape design, and the use of fire as a management tool, visit the Fire in the Landscape resource page.

Effects on Biodiversity and Natural Resources

Increased stress to natural systems raises the risk of species extinction and threatens resource-based economies. Harmful algal blooms impact water recreation and coastal fisheries. Sea-level rise inundates coastal estuaries which provide fish rearing habitat. Mild winters allow pest and disease organisms to increase their range northward and to higher elevations, while stress from heat or drought makes trees more susceptible to attack. Trees such as Western redcedar and bigleaf maple that are especially susceptible to heat and drought stress and undergoing range contractions within Oregon.  Shifting seasonal patterns lead to a mismatch between animals and the availability of food they need to survive.

To learn more about climate-conscious planting, supporting biodiversity, and resilient ecosystems, visit the Biodiversity & Plants resource page.

Climate Data & Projection Tools

  • Historic climate data can be researched using WETS data, the NRCS Climate Analysis for Wetlands Tables. The WETS Tables define the normal range for monthly precipitation and growing season required to assess the climatic characteristics for a geographic area over a representative period of time.

    Data includes:  

    • Month-by-month summary temperature and precipitation for a range specified. 

    • Total precipitation inches by years specified broken out over each month

    Steps to access